December was almost a perfect repeat of November, where equity indices traded sideways, with a sell-off mid-month following a recovery during the last week, that was slightly less successful this time than during November, as stocks could not find strong bids during the last two trading days and dropped once again. While the MSCI World posted its 9th consecutive monthly gain, the S&P 500 lost 0.05%, ending its 7-month winning streak. If we look at the 3-month performance tabl

During the month of November, we found ourselves in the midst of uncertainty, and for an outside observer, the stock market’s behavior could have been diagnosed as a bipolar disorder. The allure to build long positions in order to participate in the infamous year-end rally was constrained by an increasing number of market participants raising their voices that the FED will not cut rates during the December meeting. Moreover, the recent deal-making by OpenAI raised some eyebro

Forecasting where the stock market will be heading is becoming increasingly tricky. There are convincing arguments in either direction. While the “healthy correction consensus” among investors has been proven wrong for a while, volatility has increased considerably during the past weeks, courtesy of the earnings season. On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump visited China to hopefully finalize a trade deal with President Xi Jinping. The most meaningful terms were the suspens

Equity markets once again were able to defy September’s seasonality of weak performance and traded up, making it the sixth month up in a row for the MSCI World Index. The Nasdaq 100 is doing the same, raising the voices of the “Bubble Gospel Choir” once more. From our point of view, as mentioned in the previous monthly report, the market could well be in a bubble. But the important question is: in what stage are we currently trading? If we look at statistics, scanning previou

On 1 September 2025 Alexander von der Vellen’s book “Trust – The Skill of Trusteeship in 16 Success Stories and 1 Failure”, co-authored...

It’s important to think in terms of decades, not months. It’s also essential to get the big picture right. Communicating every month is a...